Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish on Rupee Amid Improved U.S.-India Trade SentimentGoldman Sachs recommends a bullish rupee bet, predicting a 1–2% rise if trade conditions improve with the U.S. despite volatility risks.
Goldman Sachs has made a notable bullish call on the Indian rupee, citing improving U.S.-India trade dynamics. The firm believes that if U.S. tariffs on Indian goods remain at or below 25%, the rupee could appreciate by 1–2%.
To express this bullish view, Goldman recommends a put option structure on the USD/INR pair, with a strike around 88 and a knock-out at 85.5, expiring in March 2026. This strategy limits downside while offering potential upside if the rupee strengthens.
However, risks remain. The rupee’s upside is expected to be capped because of central bank intervention and hedging flows from corporates.
For forex traders and investors, the key implications are:
Consider hedging or exposure to INR if global flows or trade talks improve.
Use options to play asymmetric risk — limited downside, potential gain.
Monitor macro developments, especially U.S.-India trade and RBI actions.
Stay nimble: FX markets are pricing in both opportunity and risk.
Overall, Goldman’s view underlines a cautious but strategic bet on the rupee — not a blind long, but a well-structured play built around trade and volatility.